Hiki i ka Democrats ke hoʻokahakaha nui i ka Repubalika Repubalika i nā Koho

Kūpaka paha ka poʻe koho balota Repubalika i kā lākou koho balota e like me ka manaʻo o Democrats.

I loko o kahi pepa i hala iho nei, ua wehewehe nā mea kākau (Mercier, Celniker, & Shariff, 2020) i ʻekolu mau haʻawina empirical e nānā ana i ka manaʻo o nā Democrats e makemake ana nā Repubalika e koho balota no nā moho mai nā ʻano helu kanaka. Ua hoʻokolokolo nā noiʻi i kekahi mau manaʻo hoʻohihi hoihoi e pili ana i ko Democrats mau manaʻoʻiʻo e pili ana i nā kipi Republican a me ka pili ʻana o nā manaʻo pili i nā ʻikena kikoʻī i nā manaʻo Democrats e pili ana i kā lākou moho i koho ʻia.

ʻAʻole kēia kahi loiloi hope loa o kā lākou ʻike. Nui a hewahewa nā kuhiakau e pili ana i nā koho Demokalaka o nā moho Demokalaka mai nā ʻano ʻokoʻa aʻu e kamaʻilio ʻole ai ma aneʻi. ʻO kahi laʻana, ua hoʻāʻo nā mea kākau i ka electability i ʻike ʻia ma waena o nā Democrats o ka poʻe mai nā papa helu kanaka kikoʻī a me nā ʻike a nā Democrats iā Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, a me Pete Buttigieg. I kēia pou, hōʻike wau i kekahi o nā ʻike i hoihoi loa iaʻu.

Ua paʻi ʻia ka pepa ma ka pūnaewele ma mua o ka hoʻokomo ʻia ʻana i kahi puke pai a ʻaʻole i loiloi ʻia e nā hoa. E like me nā manawa maʻamau, paipai wau i nā mea heluhelu e heluhelu i ka ʻatikala kumu āpau iā lākou iho a hana i ko lākou mau manaʻo ponoʻī o ka ʻikepili - a e ʻimi i nā hopena aʻu e kūkākūkā ʻole ai ma aneʻi.

Ua hōʻiliʻili ʻia ka ʻikepili no ka hoʻopaʻa haʻawina 1 mai kahi laʻana pūnaewele o 728 i komo (76% White, 13% ʻEleʻele, 7% Hispanic, 6% Hikina Hema; 56% kāne, 44% wahine; awelika makahiki 35.75). Ua nīnau ʻia ka poʻe i komo e pili ana i kā lākou makemake e koho balota no nā moho kālaiʻāina o nā hui lehulehu a me kā lākou koho e pili ana i ka pane ʻana a nā Democrats, Republicans, a me nā ʻAmelika āpau i nā nīnau like (ma ka pālākiō 0-100%). Aia he 369 Democrats, 175 Repubalika, a me 167 Kūʻokoʻa i ka laʻana.

Ma ke ʻano he laina e kūlike ai ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā kuhi manaʻo mai nā mea komo, ua hoʻohana nā mea noiʻi i ka ʻikepili mai kahi balota o kahi aupuni Gallup e hōʻike ana i ka manaʻo o ka makemake e koho balota no kekahi mahele kanaka. Ua hōʻike mua ka ʻikepili Gallup lahui i ka makemake o nā Repubalika e koho balota no nā hui aʻe: Katolika (97%), ʻEleʻele (94%), Iudaio (94%), Hispanic (92%), ʻeuanelio (92%) , a wahine paha (90%).

Ma ka awelika, ua kuhi hewa nā Democrats i nā mahele he nui. Kuhi ʻia kēia me ka wīwī Democrat e hōʻike ana nā Repubalika i ka makemake e koho balota no kahi moho Kakolika (70%), ʻEleʻele (40%), Iudaio (45%), Hispanic (37%), ʻeuanelio (76%), a i ʻole wahine (43%).

Ua hōʻike mua ka ʻikepili Gallup āpau i ka makemake ʻole o nā Repubalika e koho balota no nā hui aʻe: kaiapili (19%), Muslim (38%), a i ʻole atheist (42%). Ua hala ka nui o ka Democrats i ka hōʻailona ma ʻelua o kēia mau mea ʻekolu, no ka mea ua hoʻohālikelike ka Democrat maʻamau i ka makemake o nā Repubalika e koho balota no ka moho Muslim (21%) a i ʻole atheist (29%).

No laila, hoʻokahuli ka poʻe Democrats i ka pane maikaʻi ʻole o nā Repubalika i nā mahele o nā Kakolika, ʻEleʻele, Iudaio, Hispanika, ʻEnelani, a me nā wahine, me kahi hōʻike kūpono ʻole o ka bias Republican i kūʻē i ka Hispanics. He kuhi hewa kuhihewa kēlā o nā Repubalika i hāʻawi ʻia ʻo nā moho Hispanic ʻo Marco Rubio lāua ʻo Ted Cruz ʻelua mau mea nui i hoʻokūkū ʻia ma ka pelekikena pelekikena ʻo GOP 2016.

Ua hoʻomāhuahua hoʻi ka poʻe Demokalaka i ka hōʻole ʻana o ka Repubalika i kahi moho he Muslim a i ʻole atheist paha. Eia hou, ua hoʻokahuli nā Democrats i ka nui o nā Repubalika e makemake e koho balota no kahi moho ma luna o 70 mau makahiki a i ʻole kahi kaiāulu. Hāʻawi ʻia nā mea hoʻokūkū kiʻekiʻe ʻekolu no ka moho Democrat a me Republican i ʻoi aku ma luna o 70 mau makahiki (Biden, Sanders, Trump), ma ke ʻano he socialist, ʻo Sanders paha ka mea nui e lilo e pili ana i nā koho aupuni. Ua hōʻike ʻia nā ʻike hou aku ma ka Haʻawina 1 ua ʻoi aku ka pololei o nā Repubalika i ka wānana ʻana i ka mākaukau o Democrat e koho balota no nā moho ma mua o kā Democrat wānana o kā lākou pāʻina ponoʻī. Ma muli paha o ka maʻalahi o ka pili ʻana o nā Lepupalika i nā ʻāpana o kēia manawa i ka Democratic Party ma mua o ka hana ʻana o kā Democrats.

Ua hōʻiliʻili ʻia ka ʻike no ka noi 2 ma Ianuali 2020 mai kahi laʻana pūnaewele o 597 poʻe i komo. Nānā wale ia i nā Democrats a hoʻohui i nā nīnau e pili ana i ka launa pū ʻana o ka mea i komo me nā Repubalika. ʻO wau, ʻo ka mea hoihoi loa i ka Study 2 ʻo ia ka pili pinepine ʻana o ka poʻe Democrat me nā Repubalika, ʻoi aku ka pololei o kā lākou koho ʻana no ka makemake o nā Repubalika e koho balota no ka moho o kekahi helu kanaka. Kuhi paha kēia hopena i ka pono e puka i waho o kā mākou keʻena echo a kamaʻilio pū kekahi me kekahi.

Ua hōʻiliʻili ʻia ka ʻike no Study 3 ma Pepeluali 2020 mai kahi laʻana pūnaewele o 930 poʻe i komo. Ua like ia me Study 2, koe wale nō he hana hoʻokolohua kāna: Hāʻawi ʻia i nā mea komo i ka ʻikepili no ka pākēneka maoli o ka poʻe ʻAmelika e makemake e koho balota no kahi moho mai kekahi hui kanaka a i ʻole hāʻawi ʻia lākou ia ʻano ʻike. Hāʻawi ʻia me ka ʻikepili helu kumu alakaʻi i alakaʻi ʻia i nā Democrats e koho ana i nā koho kiʻekiʻe aʻe o kahi moho atheist, ʻEleʻele, wahine, wahine, Hispanic, Iudaio, a Muslim paha, a me nā electability haʻahaʻa o kahi moho Katolika, ʻelele, Karistiano, socialist, a i ʻole ma luna o 70 mau makahiki.

Nā Hopena

Ua alakaʻi nā mea kākau o ka noiʻi noiʻi ʻekolu mau noiʻi e hōʻike ana i ka ʻike ʻana o ka Democrats i ka Repubalika a hāʻawi i ka ʻike e pili ana i ke ʻano o ka electability, nā ʻano i nā hui, a me nā ʻano i ʻike ʻia o nā poʻe i nā hui e hiki ai ke hoʻohuli i ke kākoʻo o kekahi kanaka i kekahi moho. He kūpono i nā mea hoʻolālā kālaiʻāina e hoʻohana i kēia ʻepekema ʻepekema e hoʻoholo i kā lākou kumumanaʻo. ʻO ka mea nui loa, hāʻawi ia i nā mea noiʻi maʻamau i ka ʻepekema ʻepekema ʻike i ke ʻano o ka manaʻo e hoʻohuli i ke ʻano politika o kēia manawa.