He aha kāu e ʻike ai? ʻO ka maikaʻi a me ka maikaʻi ʻole o kahi ala ʻepekema

Ma ka ʻāpana 1 o kēia moʻo, ua kūkākūkā wau i ka illusion o ka ʻike i loko o ka pōʻaiapili o COVID-19 a wehewehe i ka nui o nā mea a mākou e manaʻo nei he ʻike maoli mākou, i lawe ʻia ma ke ʻano ʻoiaʻiʻo, no ka mea, mai kahi kumu a mākou e manaʻoʻiʻo ai.

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ʻO nā akeakamai a hiki i ko Plato wehewehe ʻana i ka ʻike ma ke ʻano he "kūpono i ka manaʻoʻiʻo maoli (JTB)." Eia naʻe, ua ʻaʻa nā skeptics a me Pyrrhonists i kēia manaʻo no nā kenekulia, e kuhi ana he hōʻike like ka manaʻo a kekahi kanaka e kūpono ana i ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo ʻana i kahi manaʻoʻiʻo he "ʻoiaʻiʻo," e manaʻo paha kekahi he kolohe a he ʻole paha (David McClean, kamaʻilio pilikino, 2020).

Kū'ē i kēia kāʻei kua, nā mea noʻonoʻo Enlightenment-era, ʻo René Descartes lāua ʻo Charles Sanders Peirce, i hoʻolaha i ka hana ʻepekema ma ke ʻano he ala maikaʻi loa no ka loaʻa kūpono nā hōʻike e hoʻokumu ai manaʻoʻiʻo e like me ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻike. I kāna mana nui 1877, Ka hoʻoponopono o ka manaʻoʻiʻo , Hoʻonani ʻo Peirce i nā pono o ka hana ʻepekema ma mua o nā ʻano ʻike ʻē aʻe, e like me ka ʻae makapō ʻana i nā mea mai nā mana o ka mana a me ka hilinaʻi ʻana i nā manaʻo maʻemaʻe e hoʻokumu i ka ʻike me ka ʻole o ka hoʻāʻo ʻana i nā hopena o kekahi i ka honua maoli.

ʻOiai, ʻo ke ʻano ʻepekema, me ka koi ʻana i ka nānā pololei ʻana a me ka hoʻāʻo ʻana i nā kuhiakau, he mea nui mua ia no kā mākou lāhui, e ʻae nei iā mākou e catapult ma luna o nā superstitions a me nā ʻōnaehana manaʻo ʻē aʻe he kūpono ʻole a hilinaʻi ʻole paha. Eia kekahi, ʻo ia nō ka ʻōnaehana ʻoi loa no ke kōkua ʻana i kā mākou laha i ka holomua i mua i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo. Eia nō naʻe, ke ʻano ʻepekema, inā ʻaʻole ka hana ʻepekema holoʻokoʻa, ʻaʻole ia me ka palena ʻole o ka hiki ke ʻae hōʻike pono kūpono e hoʻokumu i ka ʻike.

I loko o nā makahiki he 10 i hala iho nei, ua ʻike mākou i ka hapa nui o nā ʻike ʻepekema a mākou i lawe ai ma ke ʻano he mea i hoʻihoʻi ʻia, no ka hewa a i ʻole ka hoʻopunipuni (Brainard & You, 2018). Ma ke kahua o ka psychology, kikoʻī, ke hele nei mākou i nā huaʻōlelo me kā mākou helu ponoʻī, i ʻike ʻia ʻo "ke kūpilikiʻi pilikia," mai 2011 (Pashler & Wagenmakers, 2012). ʻOiai ua hoʻoliʻiliʻi iki ʻia, hoʻolaha ʻia kahi pilikia kope i ke kahua o ka neuroradiology me nā hopena koʻikoʻi. I ka 2016, ua ʻike nā kānaka noiʻi mai Sweeden (Ecklund et al., 2016) i kahi anomaly helu helu i hōʻoia ʻole ʻia e hoʻopaʻa ʻia he 40,000 fMRI o nā neurology ma kahi o 15 mau makahiki.

ʻO kahi o ka pilikia me ka ʻepekema ʻoiai mākou e hoʻāʻo e hoʻopaʻa i nā phenomena sophisticated, pono mākou i nā lakohana sophisticated hou, kahi e lawe iā mākou i kahi mamao aku mai ka nānā pololei ʻana a koi mākou e kau i kā mākou ʻepekema. manaʻoʻiʻo i nā mīkini a me nā hana a nā poʻe ʻē aʻe. E like me kā Bec Crew (2016) kuhikuhi i ka hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo o Ecklund et al i loaʻa, "ke unuhi nei ka ʻepekema i ka ʻikepili mai ka mīkini fMRI, ʻaʻole lākou e nānā i ka lolo maoli ... ʻo ka mea a lākou e nānā nei he kiʻi o ka lolo i hoʻokaʻawale ʻia i nā voxels 'liʻiliʻi, a laila unuhi ʻia e kahi polokalamu kamepiula."

ʻOiai, ʻo ka makemakika, ka maʻemaʻe o nā kahua STEM, ke ʻeha nei i kahi pilikia o ka hilinaʻi, ʻoiai ke kūpono o nā hōʻoia he lehulehu i hoʻokumu i ke kumu o ka makemakika o kēia manawa i nīnau ʻia. Ua haʻi aku ka makemakika ʻo Kevin Buzzard i ka poʻe i hele ma kahi ʻaha kūkā 2019 "ʻo nā hōʻoia nui loa i lilo i paʻakikī no ka hiki ʻole i kekahi kanaka ma ka honua ke hoʻomaopopo i kā lākou kikoʻī āpau, e hōʻoiaʻiʻo iā lākou," a makaʻu ʻo ia i ka nui o nā hōʻoia i manaʻo nui ʻia he hewa (Mordechai Rorvig, 2019). Ma ka hoʻohālua ʻana iā Buzzard, ua wehewehe ka mea kākau moʻolelo ʻo Mordechai Rorvig i kēlā "nā hōʻoia hou e nā makemakika ʻoihana e hilinaʻi i ka nui o nā hopena ma mua i paʻi ʻia a hoʻomaopopo ʻia ... akā he nui nā hihia kahi i maopopo ʻole ai ka maopopo o nā hōʻike mua." I ke akeakamai, kapa ʻia kēia pilikia o ka regress infinite: kahi e pili ana kēlā me kēia ʻatikala o ka ʻike i kekahi ʻatikala o ka ʻike i lawe makapo ʻia ʻoiaʻiʻo a i ʻole hiki ʻole ke hōʻoiaʻiʻo ʻia, ad infinitum.

Ke hoʻi nei i ka ʻepekema, e noʻonoʻo kāua i kahi mea noiʻi olakino, ʻo Kauka Feelbetter, makemake e holo i kahi hoʻokolohua e hoʻoholo inā paha kahi hopena o ka lāʻau antibiotic azithromycin e like me ka maʻa maʻamau 500 mg no ka mālama ʻana i ka sinusitis nui (ʻo ia hoʻi, nā maʻi sinus) , akā me nā hopena ʻē aʻe. No laila hoʻolālā ʻo ia i kahi randomized, double-blind study e hoʻohālikelike ana i kahi mahele 250 mg i ka 500 mg mahele lāʻau a i kahi placebo-control.

I kēlā me kēia hoʻokolohua, kaohi ka mea noiʻi nui ma luna o nā palena āpau o ke aʻo a koi ʻia e hoʻoholo i nā manaʻo kaulike e pili ana i kēlā me kēia ʻano o ka hoʻokolokolo. Ma kēia hoʻokolohua kikoʻī, he papa inoa pau ʻole a Kauka Feelbetter e hoʻoholo ai, e like me:

a) ʻO wai e lilo i mea komo noiʻi? (Nā mākua? Kamaliʻi? Kāne? Wahine? Nā lālā o kekahi lāhui kikoʻī i maʻalahi i nā maʻi sinus? Etc.)

b) Pehea e wehewehe ai, ana a ʻike ʻia ai ka "sinusitis huehue"?

c) Pehea e hāʻawi ʻia ai ka lāʻau, azithromycin? (Pākaukau? Wehe ʻia ka wai? IV?)

d) Pehea e loiloi ai i ka hopena o ka lāʻau? (Nānā X-ray o ka ihu? Hōʻike kauka? Hōʻike pilikino hoʻomanawanui?)

e) ʻO nā kaʻina hana helu e hoʻohana ʻia e kālailai i ka ʻikepili, a me nā loli, mai kahi hoʻonohonoho palena ʻole, e hoʻomalu ʻia i nā helu helu.

ʻO kēia kahi hapa liʻiliʻi wale nō o nā ʻano hoʻoholo e pono ai nā mea noiʻi e hana i nā hoʻokolohua ʻepekema, a ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ke hele nei ke kumuhana nui i kēlā me kēia hoʻoholo. Pehea mākou e ʻike ai inā ʻo Kauka Feelbetter, a i ʻole kekahi o nā ʻepekema a mākou e hilinaʻi nei e hana i ka noiʻi a kā mākou ola i hilinaʻi ai, i hoʻoholo pono ai i kēlā me kēia wahi, a i ʻole kūʻē i ka hoʻowalewale e hana i nā hana hoʻopunipuni.

ʻO kekahi o nā keu pono o ke kiʻi ʻana i kahi Ph.D. i ka psychology ua hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻia mākou ʻaʻole wale ma ke ʻano he kauka lapaʻau akā ma ke ʻano he ʻepekema; a ma ke ʻano he ʻepekema, koi ʻia mākou e hōʻike mau i kā mākou noiʻi i nā hoa i ka kaiāulu ʻepekema ma nā hālāwai kūkā a me nā hālāwai ʻeke ʻeleʻele hebedoma. ʻO ka hōʻike ʻana i kahi noiʻi a kekahi ma ia mau wahi hiki ke lilo i mea weliweli no ka mea he mea maʻamau no nā ʻepekema ʻē aʻe e wāwahi i kāu noiʻi ke kūlike ʻole lākou me kāu metodology a i ʻole kāu helu helu. ʻO kēia ke ʻano o nā mea i ka ʻepekema a alakaʻi ʻia kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo Max Planck, paionia o ka physic physics, e ʻōlelo kaulana:

"ʻAʻole lanakila kahi ʻepekema hou i ka hōʻoia ʻana i kāna mau mea kūʻē a hōʻike iā lākou i ka mālam, akā no ka mea e make ana nā mea kūʻē, a ulu aʻe kahi hanauna hou i kamaʻāina iā ia."

Kūlike ʻole i ka manaʻo o ka poʻe he nui, ʻaʻole i hoʻoholo ka hapanui o nā pilikia i ka ʻepekema - kahi kuhi na ka physicist o NYU ʻo Steven Koonin i loko o kāna puke. Unsettled . ʻAʻole wau e ʻōlelo i kēia no ka mea ʻimi wau e hoʻouka i ka ʻepekema akā no ka mea e pale aku ai iā ia i ka pseudoscience a me nā manaʻo kipi e pono ai e hana i kahi pōʻaiapili o nā manaʻo maoli no ka nīnau ʻepekema. ʻO wau iho ka hilinaʻi i ka hapanui o nā ʻepekema a me ka hapanui o nā noiʻi noiʻi i paʻi ʻia i nā puke pai i nānā ʻia e nā hoa no ka mea, i kaʻu hana ponoʻī, ua lawelawe maikaʻi kēia hana iaʻu. Akā pono wau e ʻae ʻoiai wau e hilinaʻi nei i ka hapanui o nā loiloi noiʻi loiloi ʻia e nā hoa, ʻaʻole wau ʻike e pili ana iā lākou i ke ala like I ʻike e pili ana i nā hopena o ka umekaumaha i koʻu kino ke lele wau i ka lewa a hoʻi hou i lalo i ka Honua (kahi kiko i hana ʻia me ka hoʻomākeʻaka ʻia e ka poʻe molowa. Mālamalama Mau Loa ma Piladelapia ).

Eia kekahi, pono nō wau e hōʻoia i kaʻu mau ʻike i ka ʻepekema ua hoʻomaopopo wau i nā palena o ko mākou hiki ke ʻike i nā mea, ʻoiai ke hoʻohana ʻana i ka hana ʻepekema, a ua hoʻoikaika kēia mau ʻike i koʻu manaʻoʻiʻo i nā mea ʻē aʻe ʻaʻole hiki ke hōʻoia ʻia e ka ʻepekema. I ka hopena, manaʻoʻiʻo wau ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke manaʻolana e loaʻa ka ʻike, hiki iā mākou ke hoʻokokoke aku iā ia, a ʻo kā mākou hana maikaʻi loa i ka ʻike e kākoʻo ʻia e ko mākou ʻike pololei (ʻo ia ka mea a William James i kapa ai ʻo "radical empiricism"), i hōʻoia ʻia e nā ʻike o nā poʻe ʻē aʻe, me nā noiʻi ʻana mai nā manaʻo he nui.

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Konoi aku wau iā ʻoe e heluhelu i ka ʻāpana 3 o kaʻu He aha kāu e ʻike ai? ka moʻo e nānā ana i ka hopena o ka manaʻo postmodernist i kā mākou hilinaʻi i ka mea a mākou e ʻike nei a ua hoʻohana ʻia kēia e nā poʻe me kahi ʻano o ka manaʻo.

Pashler, H. & Wagenmaker, E. J. (2012). "Hoʻolaha o nā mea hoʻoponopono i ka ʻāpana kūikawā ma ka Replicability i ka ʻepekema Psychological: kahi pilikia o ka hilinaʻi?". Nā ʻike i ka ʻepekema Psychological. 7 (6): 528-530.

ʻO Eklund, A., Nichols, T.E. & Knutsson, H. (2016). Hewa ka ʻaihue: No ke aha i hoʻonui ai i nā loiloi fMRI no ka nui o ka spatial i nā helu helu hewa ʻole
PNAS, 113 (28) 7900-7905.

Rorvig, M. (2019). Makaʻu ka Theorist Helu i nā hewa a pau i paʻi ʻia. Hope Nūhou, Sep 26 2019, https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8xwm54/number-theorist-fears-all-published-math-is-wrong-actually

ʻO Crew, B. (2016). Hiki i kahi Bug i ka Polokalamu FMRI ke hōʻoia i 15 mau makahiki o ka noiʻi ʻana o ka lolo. Alert Science, Iulai 6, 2016, https://www.s Sciencealert.com/a-bug-in-fmri-software-could-invalidate-decades-of-brain-research-s Scientists-discover